The three-year period has come, but the iPhone in my imagination has not returned | Ai Faner

Originally, I would have thought that the iPhone 15 series would be the third to last iPhone surprise from Apple.

My guess is that based on the cycle theory, this generation of iPhone will undergo earth-shaking changes and become a surprise. The other two surprises are the unknown folding screen iPhone and the integrated iPhone without openings.

The result is that the iPhone 15 series is as good as expected.

The iPhone has lost innovation and is a topic that is not innovative at all.

Personally speaking, this generation of iPhone 15 Pro Max is the model that I have the strongest motivation to replace among all previous generations of iPhones.

But for the viewers who stayed up late to watch the release, most people still commented that the iPhone has lost innovation, and the iPhone 15 is another mediocre generation. In fact, there are only a few iPhone models that are recognized as having innovative value. In total, only the original iPhone, iPhone 4, and iPhone X are not controversial. The other iPhones are more like three years of sewing and three years of sewing and another three years of sewing.

Therefore, the iPhone’s loss of innovation is actually a topic that is not innovative at all. After all, innovation is a scarce commodity, and even progress that is considered normal is likely to be spiral-shaped.

Before the official launch, various news almost confirmed that the iPhone 15 Pro Max would be equipped with a titanium alloy frame, a 5X telephoto lens, and a change to the USB Type-C interface. After that, I expressed my expectations to more than one person. And determined to change the phone as soon as possible.

As mentioned before, progress often spirals, and this generation of iPhone 15 Pro Max is progress in the right direction.

For example, the dispute between Lightning and USB Type-C interfaces. The Lightning interface that first appeared on the iPhone 5 was so advanced and elegant that it made the Micro USB at the time look so vulgar. However, as time has passed, USB Type-C has improved in terms of parameters and compatibility. The advantages are gradually emerging, and the ease of use is obviously far superior to the Lightning interface.

For another example, the iPhone Pro and Max models, while the number of lenses, battery capacity, and heat dissipation modules are not as good as those of Android flagship phones of similar sizes, the weight is constantly increasing, all the way towards the goal of weighing half a kilogram, and finally it is This generation has achieved significant weight reduction through changes in fuselage materials.

Also, when domestic mobile phone brands are playing a big role in imaging, the iPhone has remained unchanged and has not been able to achieve a telephoto lens above 3X for a long time. The reason is understandable. After all, before, Android phones had 5X and 10X optics, and even higher optics. 50X or even 100X digital zoom can only be said to be possible. Even with calculated photography compensation, it is not yet good enough.

Of course, we can’t be sour grapes. The telephoto aspect has already been a huge improvement. The worst thing we can do is use Deep Fusion to sharpen it even more.

Another update worthy of applause is that users can finally customize the focal length of the iPhone 15 Pro dual-camera main camera. By cropping, choose between 24mm (native focal length), 28mm and 35mm, because the main camera image of the smartphone Sensors are getting bigger and bigger. In order to control the thickness of the lens, manufacturers can only make the main camera focal length wider and wider. Although the imaging quality has improved, the too wide focal length of about 24mm is not suitable for image creation.

Some people are obsessed with Apple’s efforts to advance semiconductor manufacturing technology. The first 3nm chip mobile phone deserves praise. Some people think that the iPhone 15 Pro dual-camera shooting space video through the combination of main camera and wide-angle lens is a killer feature. This feature connects the present and the future. Being together can be used to commemorate the past. It is the magic of time and space. Some people also think that the dual-camera iPhone 15 Pro can shoot 4K60fps video, which is a huge improvement. In addition, USB Type-C can directly connect to external hard drives, which means that Apple’s new mobile phone is capable of many work scenarios.

Are these innovations? Of course, it counts, but in terms of meeting needs, it is either the icing on the cake, or it is aimed at a niche group of people.

Once again, the iPhone is criticized for not having innovation. It’s not that there’s not enough progress, it’s that it’s missing something from scratch, and something else.

Does iPhone sell well? Does it rely on innovation or something else?

In fact, among the 200 million people who buy iPhones every year, only a small part are familiar with iPhone parameters and technical details.

For example, the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus do not use the same A16 processor as the iPhone 14 Pro. Instead, they use the previous generation A15 processor to reduce costs and increase efficiency without reducing prices. This has caused almost no waves. One is the A series. The processor is really far ahead. There is almost no difference in the use experience between the two generations of processors. Secondly, the audience of the new iPhone is different from the audience of the new Xiaomi machine. The internal parameters are not very important. , otherwise iPhone 15 & 15 Plus would not be among the very few phones in the 6000 price range that still use 60Hz refresh rate screens.

Regarding what iPhone consumers are willing to buy, the history of the past ten years can provide sufficient data support.

From the release of the first-generation iPhone in 2007 to the current-generation iPhone 15 series, it is one of the most glorious smartphones in the history of consumer electronics. In the grand narrative of smartphones, the iPhone is undoubtedly the protagonist. It is necessary to add the adjective “magnificent” to the protagonist. If so, it can only be a waveform chart of sales volume.

It can be seen that after the iPhone sold 169 million units in 2014, it sold a terrifying 231 million units in 2015, an increase of 36.7%.

In the following years, Apple did not sell so many mobile phones until 242 million iPhones were sold in 2021, setting a new high.

Of course, during the so-called trough period from 2015 to 2021, there was also an inconspicuous peak: in 2018, Apple sold nearly 218 million iPhones.

Considering that in recent years, iPhones have been released in September, and then sold well in the following Christmas and New Year seasons, and then in the following year, to a large extent, if you want to analyze iPhone sales in 2015, 2018 and 2021, in fact We are talking about the iPhone 6 & 6 Plus, iPhone 8 & 8 Plus & iPhone X released the previous year, and how well the iPhone 12 series sold.

Compared to the iPhone 5s and its unsatisfactory younger brother, the iPhone 5c, the iPhone 6 & 6 Plus are in fact Apple’s dual main models on sale. More importantly, this is the first time Apple has significantly increased the screen, from the 4-inch screen of the iPhone 5s. Increased to 4.7 inches for iPhone 6 and 5.5 inches for iPhone 6 Plus.

iPhone 8 & 8 Plus & iPhone

Now that the four models of the iPhone 12 series have been released, there is one more model than the iPhone 11 & iPhone 11 Pro & iPhone 11 Pro Max. At the same time, Apple has made drastic changes to the design, with the return of right-angled borders and 5G network support. , this generation of iPhone is also eye-catching enough.

If we do not consider the small transparency of the iPhone 5c and iPhone SE series, we can come to the answer: the iPhone models that can support the sales peak have increased the number of models of the same generation and have undergone significant changes in form.

In short, two fists are no match for four hands, a small screen is not as good as a large screen, and a large screen is not as good as a full screen.

Considering that the existence of the iPhone mini series is actually very low, in fact, at the product level, the significant factor that can transform the sales power of the iPhone is actually four words: form change.

To expand further, consumers need an iPhone that looks different from the previous generation. The more obvious the difference from the previous generation, the better.

Another interesting point is that the overall replacement cycle of users has now been extended to more than 2 and a half years, and iPhone users will stay longer, close to 3 years. And the cycle of major changes in the form of iPhone in recent years is also 3 years, so this is almost This means that when iPhone users upgrade to a new one, they will get a completely different phone from the last one.

It just so happens that three years have passed since the iPhone 15 series was released.

But, did the morphological changes we expected appear?

Sorry, no. Except for changing the body material and narrowing the frame by about half a millimeter, the dual iPhone 15 Pro is not much different from the previous generation.

It’s not that the three-year contract period is broken, it’s that the grand narrative of smartphones is about to end.

Compared to the so-called “morphological change once every three years”, I would like to call the iPhone 15 series, especially the iPhone 15 Pro Max, the master of the current iPhone. It is better, much better. The areas where the iPhone was criticized in the past, such as closed interfaces, insufficient focal lengths, and excessive weight, have all been changed in this generation.

But for consumers, the difference between yes and no is far greater than the difference between yes and excellence.

Apple certainly knows this.

Then, the little secret hidden in iPhone sales and Apple’s performance is also coming out: Apple once again increases the average price of the iPhone by raising the starting price of the top-end iPhone. This time, Apple only added a 5X telephoto lens to the Max version, and also canceled the 128GB option of the iPhone 15 Pro Max. The entry version became 256GB, and the starting price was also 1,000 yuan higher. It also gave 512 GB and 1TB versions. They increased by 300 yuan and 500 yuan respectively.

Over the past decade or so, the average price of an iPhone has risen from around US$650 in 2012 to nearly US$1,000 today. The reason is that it is the march of iPhone from digital to Plus, to Pro, and then to Pro Max, and it is also the elegy of mini and SE.

Apple has the most stable pace and the largest arsenal of weapons among all smartphone manufacturers, but it is also the one that is least anxious to make big moves because it has too many ways to make users spend more money.

So we see that Apple is unparalleled in the field of semiconductors. Coupled with the deep integration of system software and hardware, it has achieved an energy consumption ratio that is unmatched by competing Android products, as well as a UI form like Smart Island that turns decay into magic. We have also seen that in areas where Android manufacturers are infinitely involved in 5G, high refresh rates, ultra-telephoto lenses, folding screens, fast charging, etc., Apple is always late.

Part of Apple’s innovations and surprises come from real, industry-leading innovation, and part of it comes from its own insularity and conservatism.

The backward lightning interface and closed MFi ecosystem have been criticized for a long time, so much so that the rumors and news that the iPhone will switch to the USB Type-C interface can bring sustained high popularity like a tsunami and become a purchasing driver.

It’s ridiculous, but also very realistic.

No way, from September to January every year, the background music in the consumer electronics industry is the iPhone ringtone tritone. In the BGM of the iPhone, no one can beat the iPhone.

In fact, it’s not completely impossible. At least in the Chinese market, the iPhone had a comparable competitor.

If it weren’t for Huawei’s rapid development from 2015 to 2019 and its high-end position, the emergence of the iPhone X would have seemed like a solitary failure.

In 2018, Huawei’s shipments (208 million) were almost the same as Apple’s shipments (218 million). In 2019, Huawei’s shipments (240 million) exceeded Apple’s shipments (less than 200 million) for the first time.

Focusing on the Chinese market, Apple’s shipments in China in 2018 (36.3 million units) were nearly 5 million units less than in 2017 (41.1 million units), a decrease of nearly 12%. By 2019, Apple’s shipments in China dropped further to 32.8 million units.

It can be said that the rapid momentum of Huawei’s high-end mobile phones at home and abroad from 2018 to 2019, especially in the domestic market, is one of the main reasons why Apple’s sales peak in 2018 was not high and the sales trough in 2019 was even lower.

In 2020, omit it.

In 2021, Apple’s shipments in China soared to 50.3 million units, which was the biggest driver of iPhone sales reaching a record high.

Even if the grand narrative of smartphones is full of stories, there is still an elephant in the room: shipments are inevitably declining, and there is no hope of recovery.

Local stories, such as the annual release of the iPhone, the increasing availability of folding screens, the sudden release of the Huawei Mate 60 series, etc., are exciting enough, but they do not affect the overall trend.

If you take a closer look at the computer industry, you will find that this industry actually maintains an established pace of progress. Nvidia’s flagship graphics card is hard to find, Apple’s M series chips are far ahead, and the crazy involution of notebooks in the 5,000 yuan range proves this The market still has some dynamism on the product side.

But looking at sales, after experiencing an unexpected surge two or three years ago, they have returned to a state of stagnant water.

Is it a new computer that is not easy to use? No, it’s an old computer that can still be used.

A similar situation is happening in the field of smartphones. Is it that the new mobile phones are not easy to use? The new phone is very easy to use, the screen is clear, games play smoothly, and the speakers sound great, but the old phone will only last another 3 years if the battery is replaced. Mobile phones have gradually become a product that cannot be replaced if it breaks, rather than a product that is worthy of being favored by the new and disliked by the old.

The iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max, which represent the strongest product capabilities of Apple’s mobile phones, are really good phones. They should have been the sales kings of the generation when the three-year period has arrived, welcoming the return of the Dragon King, but times have changed.

Perhaps Apple is aware of the further lengthening of the replacement cycle. From the original two-year replacement cycle to the recently commemorated three-year appointment, Apple has made up its mind to change the cycle of form changes to four years, and use the iPhone 15 series as the iPhone 12 series cycle. The final chapter, rather than the beginning.

Perhaps Li Jiaqi’s soul question directly addresses the current situation. Everyone is indeed more cautious about consumption. People upgrade, not because the new one is better, but because the old one is really not easy to use.

A blogger who sells mobile phone accessories said shortly after the Apple conference that the sales of iPhone 14 Pro series accessories in his online store had increased significantly, and he was keen to add the iPhone 14 Pro series before the conference. As for the stocking of accessories, the results are as expected, because history has already repeated itself.

The release of new iPhones drives the sales of old iPhone accessories, which is a small glimpse into the end of the grand narrative of smartphones.

In the second half of this grand narrative, Apple, who originally had many rivals, acted as a one-man show for two or three years. When the narrative atmosphere became increasingly bleak, the return of the rivals made the final chapter more exciting.

However, the survival of spatial video between the iPhone 15 Pro series and Vision Pro is a small prologue to a new narrative.